German companies want a “good” Brexit deal and are still prepared to wait – nearly 90% of respondents do not want a hard Brexit
11 October 2019
The autumn survey of members of the German-British business community has revealed that only slightly more than 10% of companies prefer a hard Brexit. A quarter of respondents is still happy to live with the current uncertainty if it leads to an agreement similar to the “deal” negotiated by the previous government. Nearly two thirds are even willing to live with much longer uncertainty if it leads to a softer Brexit based on a customs union or customs partnership with close Single Market alignment.
These figures are very similar to our survey results from the spring of this year, suggesting that patience continues to prevail. Not surprisingly, companies see potential new trade barriers and administrative hurdles as the biggest risk for their operations.
This is followed by increased uncertainty about future exchange rate developments and the medium-term economic outlook for the UK. This is underlined by the fact that 55% of respondents now view the economic outlook for the UK over the next five years negatively or very negatively. In spring 2019 the comparable figure was “only” 40%.
However, when asked about how they assess their own company’s current situation they are far more upbeat, with nearly 60% judging it as positive or very positive and only 15% as negative or very negative. Nevertheless, when judging the outlook for the next twelve months companies are a bit more cautious. This changes again when assessing their company’s medium-term prospects: over the next five years two thirds of respondents take a positive to very positive view on the prospects of their own activities in the UK.
In terms of their own company’s future investment the results are less pronounced, but broadly similar. A third wants to increase investment with only a fifth planning to invest less in the coming year. Over a five-year horizon companies are more optimistic as half of them want to increase their investment. When looking at staffing levels over the next year, nearly a third wants to increase the number of employees and only a fifth expects a decrease in employment within their UK operations. With regard to Brexit preparedness, nearly half the companies say that they are well or reasonably well prepared. Only 4% are not prepared and the remaining respondents rank somewhere in between.
Dr Ulrich Hoppe, Director General of the German-British Chamber of Industry & Commerce, commented, "The survey results suggest that the German-British business community continues to be reasonably well positioned in the current uncertain environment, but the Brexit outcome may well have a negative influence on the UK economy as the overall future development of the British economy is judged to be rather more challenging.”
141 online interviews were conducted with members of the German-British business community with UK operations. The study was part of the World Business Outlook survey of the Association of German Chambers of Industry & Commerce. Fieldwork was conducted between 30 September and 7 October 2019. The full results can be found here.
Kindly supplied by the German-British Chamber of Industry & Commerce.
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