Driving International Trade in a Fragmenting World: Key Insights from BCC Conference 2026

1 April 2026

 

The British Chambers of Commerce Driving International Trade Conference 2026 brought together policymakers, economists and business leaders to examine how global trade is evolving in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

A central theme throughout the day was clear: globalisation is not retreating, but it is being reshaped — by geopolitics, energy security, and shifting trade relationships.

From Free Trade to Strategic Trade

Jun Du, Professor of Economics at Aston Business School, highlighted the growing tension between protectionism and competitiveness. Evidence suggests tariffs often have unintended domestic consequences — with up to 94% of import price increases passed on to consumers in the US.

Rather than broad protectionist policies, the focus is shifting towards targeted competitiveness, particularly for economies like the UK. This includes identifying strategic sectors, managing supply chain dependencies, and strengthening long-term trading relationships.

For UK exporters, this reinforces the importance of diversifying markets and aligning with countries where trade conditions remain stable. For importers, it highlights the need to manage cost volatility and assess exposure to tariff-driven price increases.

Geopolitics and the Cost of Disruption

The intersection of geopolitics and trade was a key theme. Trevor Charsley, Market Strategist at Corpay, pointed to the Straits of Hormuz as a critical pressure point for global trade, noting that “the war is not over until shipping routes are open.”

Energy supply routes are increasingly acting as both economic and geopolitical levers. Disruption in these corridors has direct implications for inflation, supply chains, and business continuity — reinforcing the reality that trade risk is now closely tied to security dynamics.

For UK importers, this means heightened exposure to energy-driven cost fluctuations and delays. For exporters, it underscores the importance of route resilience and contingency planning, particularly in energy-intensive sectors.

US–UK Trade: Strong Foundations, Changing Expectations

In the keynote session, His Excellency Warren A. Stephens, United States Ambassador to the United Kingdom, described the US–UK relationship as one of the most dynamic globally, underpinned by deep private sector ties and long-standing trust.

However, the direction of travel is evolving. US trade policy is increasingly pro-growth but also more assertive, with a focus on reciprocity, domestic resilience, and energy leadership.

Several key signals emerged:

  • Energy as competitiveness: Reliable, affordable energy is now a prerequisite for investment and industrial growth
  • Capital markets integration: Potential to reduce barriers for cross-border fundraising
  • Geopolitical realism: Security priorities may override short-term trade stability

For UK exporters, the US remains a major opportunity — but success will increasingly depend on alignment with US regulatory expectations and competitiveness on cost and delivery.

For importers, particularly those reliant on US inputs, policy shifts and reciprocity measures may affect pricing and access over time.

Asia: Opportunity Requires Presence

Discussions on Asia reinforced that growth opportunities remain strong, but market entry has become more complex.

According to Dario Acconci, Head of Middle East and Asia at Hawksford, exporting alone is no longer sufficient — success depends on local presence, long-term commitment, and operational investment.

Hong Kong was highlighted by Daisy Ip, Head of Investment at InvestHK London, as a key gateway into the region, offering a combination of legal familiarity, connectivity to mainland China, and access to the Greater Bay Area — a market of over 80 million people.

What This Means for Businesses

The overarching message is one of pragmatism over ideology.

  • Trade is becoming more regional, strategic, and politically influenced
  • Energy, supply chains, and geopolitics are now core business considerations
  • Market entry increasingly requires presence, not just exporting

For UK businesses, the priority is clear: build resilience through diversification, stay close to key markets, and remain agile in the face of ongoing global uncertainty.

 

By Carla Assunção, Chamber International

 

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