Global Trade set to rebound in 2024 says WTO
1 May 2024
The WTO expects the volume of international trade in goods to grow by 2.6% this year and 3.3% in 2025, following 2023’s contraction of 1.2%, which was caused mainly by inflation and high energy prices.
The Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, written by WTO economists and released in April 2024, presents a hopeful outlook overall, despite notable areas of uncertainty. In more advanced economies in particular, inflationary pressures should subside, allowing real incomes to grow. Demand is beginning to increase, as is the number of export orders.
In 2023, import volumes fell overall, especially in Europe, though imports into fuel-producing nations were strong, bucking the trend. Trade in services performed better than trade in goods, and trade in digital services was up by 9.0% year-on-year, accounting for 13.8% of global exports for both goods and services combined.
Progress towards recovery
The WTO’s Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala commented: “We are making progress towards global trade recovery, thanks to resilient supply chains and a solid multilateral trading framework — which are vital for improving livelihoods and welfare. It's imperative that we mitigate risks like geopolitical strife and trade fragmentation to maintain economic growth and stability.”
The WTO expects the strongest export growth in 2024 to be from Africa (5.3%), followed by North America (3.6%), the Middle East (3.5%) and Asia (3.4%). South America’s growth this year will be slower (2.6%), and Europe’s is expected to be slowest of all (1.7%). In terms of imports, strong growth from Asia (5.6%) and (Africa 4.4%) “should help to prop up global demand”.
The report points to areas of risk, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (which could further impact traffic through the vital Suez Canal route between Asia and Europe) and freshwater shortages in the Panama Canal.
It also highlights some fragmentation of the trade in services along geopolitical lines, citing the effect of certain data flow policies.
Chamber International’s Operations Manager Nikki Clow said, “Though the UK’s economic growth is still relatively weak, the WTO’s forecast for stronger international trade in 2024 and 2025 will give exporters cause for optimism. At the same time, they will need to manage risks in terms of supply routes and foreign exchange. Chamber International supports UK exporters in both these areas, and we are able to provide preferential services through our global partners in logistics and forex.”
Contact us for expert advice and effective international trade services to help grow your business.
Follow Chamber International on Twitter @ChamberInt and on Facebook for the latest in international trade.
