AI investment helps global trade remain resilient despite Middle East headwinds
9 September 2026
Global goods trade is continuing to show resilience despite geopolitical uncertainty and disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East, with strong demand linked to artificial intelligence helping to support international trade.
The latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer, published on 9 September 2026, recorded a reading of 102.0, up from 101.7 in June. A reading above 100 indicates that merchandise trade is running above its recent trend.
The figures provide an encouraging signal for businesses trading internationally, particularly against a backdrop of continued geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty.
AI investment is supporting trade
One of the clearest drivers behind the positive reading is continued investment in artificial intelligence.
The WTO says the negative impact of the Middle East conflict is being partly offset by strong demand for electronic components and other goods associated with AI investment.
Its electronic components index reached 104.9, the strongest of the individual indicators in the latest barometer and comfortably above the baseline of 100.
This follows particularly strong growth earlier in the year. WTO figures showed that the value of trade in AI-enabling goods increased by more than 40% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2026.
The WTO has previously estimated that sustained investment in AI could add around 0.5 percentage points to merchandise trade growth in 2026, potentially helping to counter some of the pressure created by higher energy costs and disruption in the Middle East.
Wider indicators remain encouraging
The positive picture is not limited to technology.
The WTO's export orders index has strengthened to 103.5, an important indicator of future trade activity, while air freight and agricultural raw materials are also above trend.
Automotive products are slightly above trend, although container shipping has dipped just below the 100 baseline.
Taken together, the WTO says the indicators point to resilient merchandise trade growth despite continued uncertainty.
Technology is becoming an increasingly important trade driver
The latest figures demonstrate how investment in emerging technologies can have an impact far beyond the technology sector itself.
Growth in AI is generating demand across international supply chains for semiconductors, electronic components, computing infrastructure and other supporting goods, helping stimulate trade between economies involved in their production and supply.
For UK businesses, the wider message is encouraging. Global trade continues to face significant headwinds, but demand has not disappeared. New technologies, changing supply chains and investment are continuing to create opportunities across international markets.
With the WTO's latest barometer pointing upwards, the figures suggest that global trade is proving more resilient than the current geopolitical environment might imply – and AI investment is playing an important part in maintaining that momentum.
By Carla Assunção, Chamber International
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