UK trade agreement continuity: statistics and analysis

23 October 2019

The government is seeking continuity for our existing EU trade agreements as we leave the European Union.

This release provides key numbers on UK trade agreements. These statistics do not estimate the value or impact of the trade agreements themselves. They provide, for context, the overall value of the UK’s trade with countries covered by these agreements. These countries are sometimes referred to as ‘Trade Agreement Continuity’ (TAC) countries.

Key statistics

1. The government is seeking continuity for our existing EU trade agreements as we leave the European Union (see methodology note 1).

2. UK trade with countries party to trade agreements with which we are seeking continuity accounted for £138.7 billion or 10.7% of UK’s total trade (goods and services) in 2018.

3. Agreements have now been signed with countries that account for 72.0% of the UK’s trade in 2018 with countries with which we’re seeking continuity.

4. This means we have already secured continuity on £99.8 billion of UK trade. That has moved from £38.5 billion since March.

Chart 1: UK Trade Agreements in the context of total UK trade (goods and services)

Note: The 10.7% excludes Turkey, San Marino and Andorra, which are part of a customs union with the EU, and excludes Japan, as the economic partnership agreement only came into force on 1 February 2019.

Table 1: Trade with TAC target countries party to UK signed trade agreements and those agreed in principle, 2018 data, £ million

Note 1: Countries are approved in principle and expected to sign soon.

Note 2: The CARIFORUM countries are: Barbados, Belize, Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, The Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, St Christopher and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, Dominican Republic, Antigua and Barbuda, Commonwealth of Bahamas (see note 1), Republic of Suriname (see note 1).

Table 2: UK Trade with TAC target countries party to agreements still to be agreed, 2018 data, £ million

Methodology and quality notes

The department provides additional notes on the quality of the data in this release under the following headings:

1. Relevance: The statistics indicate progress towards securing continuity of existing trade agreements. The agreements covered in this release exclude Turkey, San Marino and Andorra, which are part of a customs union with the EU, and excludes Japan, as the economic partnership agreement only came into force on 1 February 2019. Find out more about UK trade agreements.

2. Content: The statistics estimate the value of UK trade with countries who are party to trade agreements. Data covers the period 2018. All trade values within this release are taken from the most recent published ONS statistics UK total trade: all countries, non-seasonally adjusted January to March 2019 release.

3. Completeness: These statistics do not estimate the value or impact of the trade agreements themselves, they provide, for context, the overall value of the UK’s trade with countries covered by these agreements. In particular these statistics cover the UK’s bilateral trade with partner countries covering all exports and imports of goods and services.

4. Geographical coverage: This analysis was conducted for the UK and countries party to trade agreements for which we are seeking continuity (see Relevance). The UK geographical coverage for ONS statistics is defined on a balance of payments basis.

5. User needs: This release provides contextual information for policy makers, parliamentarians, businesses, the media and the wider public, and to contribute to the wider government transparency agenda.

6. Accuracy: The accuracy of results is dependent on the accuracy of the data sources used. UK trade values are sourced from published ONS statistics. Find out more about methodology and quality on the ONS website.

7. Uncertainty and bias: Trade data is volatile and frequently revised. The use of annual figures in this release provides greater stability than using quarterly figures.

8. Timeliness and punctuality: This is an ad hoc release. It should be noted that the underlying statistics from ONS can be revised on a quarterly basis. The policy context underlying this release is also subject to change (see Relevance and Content).

9. Accessibility and clarity: All the statistics provided in this release are based on publicly available information (see Relevance and Content).

10. Coherence and comparability: Trade statistics have been provided from a single source for all countries, so that values are comparable.

11. Performance cost and respondent burden: Not applicable.

12. Security, confidentiality and transparency: All statistics released are calculated based on previously published information (see Relevance and Content).

Kindly supplied by GOV.UK

Follow Chamber International on Twitter @ChamberInt and on Facebook for the latest in international trade.